Training budgets are predicted to rise as skills shortages fuel recruitment difficulties, according to a survey by the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD).

The CIPD's Training and Development Survey 2004 found:
* A third of private sector training managers expect their training budget increase this year.
* 81% of organisations have a training budget - indicating an acceptance of the "training means business" case.
* 32% of respondents say that employees average more than five days training per year.

Despite the positive signs in the survey, the CIPD is warning that anticipated increases in training budgets are needed for the sake of the overall economy.

Jessica Rolph, CIPD Learning, Training and Development Adviser, said: "If anticipated increases in training budgets do not materialise, current skills shortages could translate into wage inflation, leading to adverse implications for interest rates, growth and the economy as a whole."

Public v Private Sector
The survey also showed disparity between the experiences of public sector and private sector training managers.

Thirty per cent of public sector training managers reported that their training budget had decreased last year (as compared to 27% in the private sector), and over a quarter (26%) expect the budget to decrease next year (as compared to only 17% in the private sector).

Jessica Rolph said: "The Government has invested heavily in public services over the last year, and yet training budgets appear to have fallen.

"If, as it seems, the public sector is diverting money away from training and in to pay awards in order to tackle recruitment and retention difficulties, they are taking a short-term approach which could store up problems for the future...

"It would be ironic if the Government's investment in public services were to be undermined by a focus on pay rather than training, leading to services suffering because the public sector is failing to equip staff with the skills to do the job."