Philosopher Karl Popper described the world as being made up of clocks and clouds. Clocks are predictable and structured whilst clouds are messy, evolving and hard to pin down.
In organisations, most change is treated like a clock – something we can plan, sequence and deliver. We convince ourselves that with the right plan (often beautifully crafted and presented) we can deliver a predictable outcome but the reality is that most organisational change behaves more like a cloud – messy, evolving and difficult to control.
The mismatch between how we design change and how it actually unfolds leaves many managers stuck in the middle trying to lead through uncertainty with tools designed for certainty. L&D has a key role to play in fixing this. In this article we look at how to better equip managers not just to survive organisational change but to help their teams move successfully through it.
Most organisational change behaves more like a cloud – messy, evolving and difficult to control
The impossible job of a middle manager
Change rarely breaks at the top (that’s not to absolve senior leaders – there’s plenty that sits there) but it often unravels in the middle where plans meet reality.
Middle managers sit between two very real pressures. They are expected to provide clarity, confidence and momentum, all while dealing with uncertainty, emotion and incomplete information. They might be directly affected by the change themselves without having had the time or space to process what it means for them, let alone support their teams.
And yet, this is exactly the environment we are asking managers to operate in. Often with tools designed for something much more predictable.
What happens when we treat clouds like clocks
Most organisational change – culture shifts, leadership changes, restructures – behaves like a cloud – emergent, relational and complex. When we misdiagnose it as a clock, we default to detailed plans, fixed timelines and messages that project certainty. Inevitably, reality then doesn’t cooperate.
As plans shift, uncertainty increases, trust drops and managers are left exposed, trying to reconcile what was said with what is actually happening. Recent research by Gartner found that 79 per cent of employees report low trust in organisational change and 39 per cent of leaders say change is a major source of stress for teams.
Where L&D often gets stuck
Much of what we teach managers about change is built for a more predictable world. Kotter’s 8 Step Model, ADKAR, stakeholder maps and communication plans are all potentially useful in the right context, but they assume a level of certainty that simply doesn’t exist in most organisational change.
They help managers plan and communicate change but they don’t fully prepare them to navigate the ambiguity, emotion and messy reality of human responses to change.
Many of these models come from a time when organisations were more stable and change was more contained. They are also easier to teach, easier to package and easier to scale.
But the world has shifted and change is more continuous, more interconnected and more human, and needs a different kind of capability.
Much of what we teach managers about change is built for a more predictable world
Change is human
One of the reasons change feels so messy is because of the impact it has on people. It rarely affects just the work itself and often touches on something more personal.
Change can disrupt:
- Stability – the feeling that work is predictable and manageable
- Identity – how someone sees themselves in their role
- Competence – whether they feel capable in the post-change world
- Belonging – as relationships and teams shift
- Control – their sense of influence over what’s happening
These aren’t ‘soft’ concerns. They are directly linked to motivation, performance and engagement.
When people feel stable, capable and included they bring more energy and focus. When those things are shaken, it’s much harder for people to stay engaged and productive.
Paying attention to how change is landing isn’t just about being supportive, it’s about protecting the conditions people need to do their best work. Managers may not design the change but they shape how it’s experienced day to day. This is exactly where L&D needs to focus.
The OD shift: From telling to sense making
In times of change, managers are often asked to cascade messages. This is important and most organisations under-communicate – research from Stanford suggests that leaders are nearly 10 times more likely to be criticised for under communicating than over communicating.
However, communication alone isn’t enough. Where L&D can make a real difference is helping managers shift from ‘telling’ to ‘sense making’ and creating space for people to:
- Process what’s happening
- Explore what feels unclear
- Work through what the change means for them
This is how we help people move through the inevitable emotions that come up with change. This also requires a shift in how we view ‘resistance’ to change.
Rather than seeing it as something to shut down, we start to look at ‘resistance’ as data. It tells us something about what is unclear, what’s not landing or what feels at risk. When managers respond with curiosity rather than control, conversations change and so does the trajectory of change itself.
When people feel stable, capable and included they bring more energy and focus
What managers actually need
When we support managers to lead through change we’ll often frame their role around 3 core moves.
Role 1: Anchor
What managers do:
- Create stability where they can
- Reinforce what isn’t changing
- Provide consistent touchpoints through regular check-ins, clear messages and familiar rhythms
How L&D can help:
- Provide simple tools for structuring regular check-ins
- Help managers identify and communicate ‘what’s not changing’
- Equip managers with clear, repeatable core messages
- Encourage consistency of cadence, not just content
Role 2: Sense maker
What managers do:
- Create space for conversation
- Help people process what’s happening
- Ask questions rather than just providing answers
This doesn’t need more meetings but does require using existing spaces (like 121s and team meetings) more intentionally, especially after big change related townhall meetings.
- Build ‘light-touch’ conversation guides managers can use immediately
- Develop questioning and listening skills (paraphrasing, exploring and checking understanding)
- Equip managers to handle venting productively and manage dominant voices
- Help managers get more comfortable working with uncertainty
- Create mechanisms for feeding insight and concerns back up into the organisation
Role 3: Guide:
What managers do:
- Provide direction without overpromising certainty
- Clarify what matters now
- Focus people on the next step, not the full roadmap
A useful metaphor we like (borrowed from John Amaechi) is the manager as both lighthouse and torch. The lighthouse provides long-term direction and the torch illuminates the next few steps
How L&D can help:
- Equip managers with language for communicating uncertainty clearly
- Help them break work into clear, near-term priorities
- Provide tools for setting focus and managing competing demands
- Build confidence in leading without having all the answers
The true role of L&D
If most organisational change behaves more like a cloud than a clock, then the role of L&D isn’t to create better plans, it’s to better equip managers for the reality they are already navigating.
If you enjoyed this, read: What if it’s not a skills gap? Six things to try before a training fix
